Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (51.2% vs 51.5%).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Domi 50.9% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 64.5%
Defensive zone
Domi 63.6%
Neutral zone
Domi 53.5%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 64.5%
35.5%
64.5%
Domi
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Domi
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
1
0
Domi
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Domi
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (254)
50.0% (992)
+0.4%
Power Play
59.3% (27)
64.9% (148)
-5.6%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +5.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Domi is 52.2% vs right-shot opponents (92).
Domi shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Domi
MacKinnon
Home
50.0% (174)
53.3% (591)
Away
53.3% (107)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Domi
MacKinnon
P1
45.7%
49.9%
P2
51.5%
53.2%
P3
57.3%
50.8%
OT
50.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
38.0%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.2%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 02:26 | Offensive | Max Domi |