Scouting Report
Max Domi holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Domi on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Domi wins 46.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Domi 48.8% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Domi leads 15-11 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Domi 62.5%
Defensive zone
Domi 54.7%
Neutral zone
Domi 62.3%
Result
Max Domi favored at 60.0%
60.0%
40.0%
Domi
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
11
(26 meetings)
15
11
Domi
MacKinnon
Last 10: Domi 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Domi
5
2
Domi
MacKinnon
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Domi
5
3
Domi
MacKinnon
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
6
Domi
MacKinnon
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Domi
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (4,296)
46.1% (11,218)
+2.0%
Power Play
53.4% (633)
53.3% (1,412)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (41)
42.8% (502)
+6.0%
On penalty kill, Domi has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Domi is 46.8% vs right-shot opponents (1,629).
Domi shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Domi
MacKinnon
Home
49.7% (2,604)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
47.8% (2,366)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Domi
MacKinnon
P1
48.7%
47.4%
P2
48.3%
46.6%
P3
49.8%
46.1%
OT
43.5%
48.4%
Final 5 min
51.0%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
48.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 25, 2026 | 3 | 02:26 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 19, 2025 | 2 | 07:16 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 07:24 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 18:27 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 08:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 11:01 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 10:45 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 03:24 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 12, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 00:18 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Oct 12, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 3 | 18:46 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 3 | 07:58 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 08:26 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 08:21 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 5, 2019 | 2 | 08:06 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Jan 12, 2019 | 3 | 01:53 | Defensive | Max Domi |