Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +2.1% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings). Domi wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Domi 53.3% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-2.1%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 15-11 in 26 meetings
Offensive zone
Domi 71.6%
Defensive zone
Domi 50.6%
Neutral zone
Domi 59.9%
Result
Max Domi favored at 60.4%
60.4%
39.6%
Domi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
11
-
15
(26 meetings)
11
15
Domi
O'Reilly
Last 10: Domi 2-8 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
5
Domi
O'Reilly
9 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
6
Domi
O'Reilly
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
4
Domi
O'Reilly
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Domi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
53.8% (847)
56.1% (690)
-2.3%
Power Play
52.1% (96)
64.6% (96)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
57.1% (7)
45.9% (109)
+11.2%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Domi is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (637).
Domi shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Domi
O'Reilly
Home
53.9% (445)
58.3% (408)
Away
53.5% (505)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Domi
O'Reilly
P1
51.4%
57.7%
P2
55.3%
54.8%
P3
54.7%
55.2%
OT
41.7%
45.5%
Final 5 min
59.2%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.7%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 10:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 07:38 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 02:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 14:50 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 11:11 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 08:40 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 00:36 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 1 | 16:12 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |