Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 24 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Domi 48.8% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 34-22 in 56 meetings
Offensive zone
Domi 80.2%
Defensive zone
Domi 90.6%
Neutral zone
Domi 89.6%
Result
Max Domi favored at 86.4%
86.4%
13.6%
Domi
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
34
(56 meetings)
22
34
Domi
O'Reilly
Last 10: Domi 4-6 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
11
11
Domi
O'Reilly
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
8
16
Domi
O'Reilly
24 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
3
7
Domi
O'Reilly
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Domi
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (4,296)
56.2% (15,260)
-8.1%
Power Play
53.4% (633)
58.8% (3,445)
-5.4%
Penalty Kill
48.8% (41)
51.4% (2,811)
-2.6%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +8.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Domi is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,341).
Domi shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.2% vs left-shot opponents (13,860).
Home / Away
Domi
O'Reilly
Home
49.7% (2,604)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
47.8% (2,366)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Domi
O'Reilly
P1
48.7%
55.6%
P2
48.3%
57.0%
P3
49.8%
55.1%
OT
43.5%
62.2%
Final 5 min
51.0%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Domi
54.0%▲
52.5%
48.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 15:47 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 1 | 04:36 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 9, 2023 | 2 | 09:21 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 3 | 09:09 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 10:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 07:38 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 19:18 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Max Domi |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 10:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 02:56 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 14:50 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 12:26 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 10:22 | Defensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 3 | 00:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 16:28 | Offensive | Max Domi |
| Dec 29, 2022 | 2 | 13:54 | Offensive | Max Domi |