Scouting Report
Dylan Larkin holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Larkin wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 55.0% vs McCarron 52.8% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Larkin 56.0%
Defensive zone
McCarron 80.2%
Neutral zone
McCarron 65.6%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 62.1%
37.9%
62.1%
Larkin
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Larkin
McCarron
Last 6: Larkin 2-4 McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
2
Larkin
McCarron
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
2
Larkin
McCarron
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
55.9% (943)
54.5% (618)
+1.4%
Power Play
57.4% (244)
42.1% (19)
+15.3%
Penalty Kill
46.2% (106)
35.3% (34)
+10.9%
On power play, Larkin has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Larkin is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (468).
Larkin shoots left. McCarron is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (463).
Home / Away
Larkin
McCarron
Home
56.0% (654)
52.2% (339)
Away
54.8% (639)
54.2% (332)
By Period
Larkin
McCarron
P1
54.4%
53.5%
P2
55.9%
50.6%
P3
55.2%
55.9%
Final 5 min
53.8%
45.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
55.4%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:41 | Defensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 3 | 10:40 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 2 | 06:34 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 23, 2024 | 1 | 07:01 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 2 | 07:36 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |