Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for McCarron on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McCarron wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.5% vs Foligno 49.8% (+3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Foligno 61.5%
Defensive zone
McCarron 78.3%
Neutral zone
McCarron 59.1%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 58.7%
58.7%
41.3%
McCarron
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
McCarron
Foligno
Last 8: McCarron 5-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
2
0
McCarron
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
2
McCarron
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
3
1
McCarron
Foligno
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
53.1% (672)
49.0% (261)
+4.1%
Power Play
18.2% (11)
57.1% (42)
-38.9%
Penalty Kill
53.7% (205)
47.1% (51)
+6.6%
On power play, Foligno has a +38.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
McCarron shoots right. Foligno is 44.4% vs right-shot opponents (162).
Home / Away
McCarron
Foligno
Home
52.8% (477)
48.9% (178)
Away
52.8% (411)
50.6% (176)
By Period
McCarron
Foligno
P1
56.5%
40.4%
P2
53.2%
55.8%
P3
49.0%
51.2%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
52.3%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26, 2026 | 3 | 19:12 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 2 | 13:42 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 26, 2026 | 1 | 13:50 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:43 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:38 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 10:29 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 17:04 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 1 | 16:58 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |