Scouting Report
Michael McCarron holds a +6.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs Foligno 48.6% (+6.0%)
H2H factor
Foligno leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Foligno 81.9%
Defensive zone
McCarron 55.5%
Neutral zone
Foligno 58.9%
Result
Nick Foligno favored at 57.7%
42.3%
57.7%
McCarron
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
McCarron
Foligno
Last 10: McCarron 4-6 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
McCarron
Foligno
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
McCarron
Foligno
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
1
3
McCarron
Foligno
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
48.7% (495)
+5.5%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
56.9% (65)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
43.8% (144)
+11.3%
On penalty kill, McCarron has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. Foligno is 51.5% vs right-shot opponents (198).
Home / Away
McCarron
Foligno
Home
54.6% (445)
49.6% (359)
Away
54.2% (478)
47.2% (345)
By Period
McCarron
Foligno
P1
53.6%
46.7%
P2
55.6%
52.7%
P3
53.7%
46.7%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
53.5%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 08:15 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 06:26 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2 | 19:13 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 13:47 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 13:41 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 11:44 | Offensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 2 | 04:54 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 25, 2024 | 1 | 03:37 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |