Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. McCarron wins 54.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.2% vs Sturm 54.1% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 68.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 55.5%
Neutral zone
Sturm 61.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 61.5%
38.5%
61.5%
McCarron
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
McCarron
Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: McCarron
1
0
McCarron
Sturm
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (562)
54.1% (233)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (164)
59.5% (74)
-5.2%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +5.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McCarron is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (525).
McCarron shoots right. Sturm is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (91).
Home / Away
McCarron
Sturm
Home
52.5% (373)
54.4% (149)
Away
52.5% (362)
56.3% (158)
By Period
McCarron
Sturm
P1
58.9%
57.1%
P2
49.2%
55.0%
P3
49.4%
53.7%
OT
0.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
51.1%
55.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
32.0%▼
49.0%
52.5%
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 07:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |