Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.7% vs Sturm 56.1% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
McCarron 61.4%
Defensive zone
McCarron 53.6%
Neutral zone
McCarron 56.9%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 56.8%
56.8%
43.2%
McCarron
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
McCarron
Sturm
Last 10: McCarron 4-6 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
4
McCarron
Sturm
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
4
McCarron
Sturm
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
5
McCarron
Sturm
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
53.4% (2,901)
57.1% (2,719)
-3.7%
Power Play
45.3% (86)
61.3% (62)
-16.0%
Penalty Kill
50.5% (463)
51.0% (498)
-0.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McCarron is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,403).
McCarron shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
McCarron
Sturm
Home
52.3% (1,696)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
53.3% (1,754)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
McCarron
Sturm
P1
53.9%
56.5%
P2
52.5%
54.9%
P3
52.0%
57.4%
OT
33.3%
60.6%
Final 5 min
50.7%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 12:58 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 04:49 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 07:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:57 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:14 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 14:32 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Apr 28, 2022 | 1 | 02:01 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |