Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.4% FO% edge overall. McCarron wins 54.9% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 54.0% vs Sturm 57.1% (-4.4%)
Offensive zone
Sturm 67.3%
Defensive zone
McCarron 62.1%
Neutral zone
Sturm 61.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.6%
44.4%
55.6%
McCarron
Sturm
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.2% (756)
62.1% (356)
-7.9%
Power Play
55.6% (9)
75.0% (4)
-19.4%
Penalty Kill
55.1% (158)
38.7% (62)
+16.4%
On power play, Sturm has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McCarron is 54.9% vs left-shot opponents (674).
McCarron shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Home / Away
McCarron
Sturm
Home
54.6% (445)
61.8% (191)
Away
54.2% (478)
56.3% (231)
By Period
McCarron
Sturm
P1
53.6%
58.0%
P2
55.6%
57.9%
P3
53.7%
60.6%
Final 5 min
53.5%
58.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
54.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%