Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
McCarron 52.8% vs Sturm 59.0% (-6.9%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 11-2 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
McCarron 72.9%
Defensive zone
McCarron 76.5%
Neutral zone
McCarron 73.3%
Result
Michael McCarron favored at 74.4%
74.4%
25.6%
McCarron
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
11
(13 meetings)
2
11
McCarron
Sturm
Last 10: McCarron 2-8 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
3
McCarron
Sturm
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
McCarron
Sturm
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
4
McCarron
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
McCarron
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
54.5% (618)
60.6% (708)
-6.1%
Power Play
42.1% (19)
61.1% (18)
-19.0%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (34)
56.4% (101)
-21.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. McCarron is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (463).
McCarron shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Home / Away
McCarron
Sturm
Home
52.2% (339)
61.6% (451)
Away
54.2% (332)
58.2% (376)
By Period
McCarron
Sturm
P1
53.5%
55.9%
P2
50.6%
58.9%
P3
55.9%
64.6%
Final 5 min
45.9%
59.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
53.2%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:19 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 19:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Michael McCarron |
| Mar 19, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:57 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 14:14 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:42 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 08:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 11:47 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 02:35 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |