Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zibanejad 49.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 58.2%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 51.0%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 51.0%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Zibanejad
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Zibanejad
Paul
Last 6: Zibanejad 3-3 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
2
1
Zibanejad
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Zibanejad
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Zibanejad
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zibanejad
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
50.9% (913)
53.1% (710)
-2.2%
Power Play
59.0% (39)
57.3% (199)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (160)
58.0% (69)
-20.5%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +20.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Zibanejad is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (837).
Zibanejad shoots right. Paul is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Zibanejad
Paul
Home
51.1% (536)
56.0% (466)
Away
47.6% (576)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Zibanejad
Paul
P1
50.1%
57.2%
P2
47.3%
54.9%
P3
50.7%
51.5%
OT
45.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.1%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2024 | 1 | 16:27 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 3 | 18:59 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 7, 2024 | 2 | 13:02 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 18:52 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 18:50 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 00:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |