Mikael Backlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (59% H2H, 61 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 96-93 in 189 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 62.3%
Defensive zone
Backlund 71.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 59.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 57.0%
57.0%
43.0%
Backlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
96
-
93
(189 meetings)
96
93
Backlund
MacKinnon
Last 10: Backlund 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
26
30
Backlund
MacKinnon
56 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
36
25
Backlund
MacKinnon
61 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
34
38
Backlund
MacKinnon
72 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,410)
46.1% (11,218)
+3.6%
Power Play
51.6% (1,336)
53.3% (1,412)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (2,446)
42.8% (502)
+1.2%
On even strength, Backlund has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,244).
Backlund shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Backlund
MacKinnon
Home
49.7% (8,565)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
48.3% (8,632)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Backlund
MacKinnon
P1
48.5%
47.4%
P2
50.3%
46.6%
P3
48.4%
46.1%
OT
44.1%
48.4%
Final 5 min
48.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 02:14 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 07:44 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 01:20 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 12:51 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 10:41 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 08:06 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |