Mikael Backlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-1.8%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 83.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 85.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 52.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 51.7%
51.7%
48.3%
Backlund
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
50.0% (992)
+0.1%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
64.9% (148)
-11.8%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
34.4% (32)
+13.4%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +13.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Backlund shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Backlund
MacKinnon
Home
48.1% (580)
53.3% (591)
Away
51.1% (653)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Backlund
MacKinnon
P1
45.1%
49.9%
P2
54.7%
53.2%
P3
49.0%
50.8%
OT
46.2%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%