Mikael Backlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 48.5% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 13-6 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 74.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 81.2%
Neutral zone
Backlund 56.1%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 54.5%
54.5%
45.5%
Backlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
13
(19 meetings)
6
13
Backlund
MacKinnon
Last 10: Backlund 4-6 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
6
Backlund
MacKinnon
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
2
Backlund
MacKinnon
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
2
5
Backlund
MacKinnon
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (1,032)
49.2% (1,266)
+1.2%
Power Play
52.3% (107)
54.9% (193)
-2.6%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (313)
49.1% (55)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Backlund is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (438).
Backlund shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Backlund
MacKinnon
Home
48.7% (749)
50.9% (740)
Away
48.1% (703)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Backlund
MacKinnon
P1
50.4%
50.9%
P2
50.1%
51.8%
P3
45.8%
47.1%
OT
30.8%
58.8%
Final 5 min
50.5%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 01:08 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 07:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 2 | 02:14 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 15:28 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 11:34 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 31, 2025 | 1 | 07:44 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 3 | 12:53 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:44 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 18:33 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 17:57 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:40 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 12:35 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 2 | 01:20 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 19:26 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 12:51 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 10:41 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 08:06 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 6, 2025 | 1 | 00:32 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |