Mikael Backlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 12 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 18-10 in 28 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 81.1%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 59.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 71.9%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 68.8%
31.2%
68.8%
Backlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
18
(28 meetings)
10
18
Backlund
MacKinnon
Last 10: Backlund 3-7 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
2
Backlund
MacKinnon
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
7
Backlund
MacKinnon
11 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
3
9
Backlund
MacKinnon
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
45.5% (1,190)
+5.5%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
56.4% (94)
+2.9%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
40.0% (30)
+2.3%
On even strength, Backlund has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Backlund
MacKinnon
Home
51.2% (782)
47.8% (670)
Away
49.4% (765)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Backlund
MacKinnon
P1
51.5%
45.3%
P2
49.8%
48.5%
P3
49.9%
45.0%
OT
37.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 18:27 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:22 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 14:10 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 07:35 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 07:30 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 05:59 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 11:01 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 10:51 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 06:46 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 12, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:12 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 14:58 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 11:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 2 | 19:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 2 | 00:33 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 11, 2023 | 1 | 15:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |