Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Dowd 48.3% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 83.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 74.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 57.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 57.8%
57.8%
42.2%
Backlund
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Backlund
Dowd
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
5
0
Backlund
Dowd
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
1
3
Backlund
Dowd
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Backlund
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
49.2% (778)
+1.8%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
58.3% (12)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
44.0% (234)
-1.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Backlund
Dowd
Home
51.2% (782)
46.3% (492)
Away
49.4% (765)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Backlund
Dowd
P1
51.5%
49.1%
P2
49.8%
48.2%
P3
49.9%
46.9%
OT
37.5%
71.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 10:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 10:09 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 07:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 05:27 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Mar 18, 2024 | 1 | 16:21 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 3 | 05:43 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 2 | 12:59 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Oct 16, 2023 | 1 | 16:48 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |