Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Paul 53.6% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Paul 92.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 55.9%
Neutral zone
Paul 71.3%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 69.3%
30.7%
69.3%
Backlund
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Backlund
Paul
Last 5: Backlund 4-1 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Backlund
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (880)
53.8% (318)
-3.8%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
61.4% (57)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (276)
50.0% (32)
-2.2%
On power play, Paul has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (860).
Backlund shoots left. Paul is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (297).
Home / Away
Backlund
Paul
Home
48.0% (567)
54.6% (183)
Away
51.1% (653)
54.5% (224)
By Period
Backlund
Paul
P1
45.0%
57.0%
P2
54.7%
56.2%
P3
49.0%
51.7%
OT
41.7%
44.4%
Final 5 min
47.7%
60.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
48.0%▲
46.0%
49.7%
Paul
58.0%▲
54.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |