Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.8% vs Paul 53.4% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 61.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 60.7%
Neutral zone
Backlund 60.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 60.9%
60.9%
39.1%
Backlund
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Backlund
Paul
Last 6: Backlund 2-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
1
Backlund
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Paul
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
3
Backlund
Paul
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (1,083)
53.8% (753)
-1.9%
Power Play
51.7% (120)
58.9% (90)
-7.2%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (183)
47.4% (78)
-3.1%
On power play, Paul has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Backlund is 52.2% vs left-shot opponents (824).
Backlund shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Backlund
Paul
Home
51.9% (673)
54.2% (450)
Away
49.9% (713)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Backlund
Paul
P1
51.4%
58.2%
P2
50.5%
50.6%
P3
51.4%
52.9%
OT
35.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2023 | 3 | 01:30 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 19:03 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 10:20 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 2 | 01:01 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 06:10 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 2 | 19:47 | Neutral | Nick Paul |