Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 15 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Paul 52.2% (-3.2%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 29-26 in 55 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 52.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 57.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Backlund
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
26
-
29
(55 meetings)
26
29
Backlund
Paul
Last 10: Backlund 5-5 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
12
Backlund
Paul
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
11
6
Backlund
Paul
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
12
11
Backlund
Paul
23 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,410)
52.5% (3,796)
-2.8%
Power Play
51.6% (1,336)
56.5% (480)
-4.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (2,446)
46.7% (574)
-2.7%
On power play, Paul has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Backlund shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Home / Away
Backlund
Paul
Home
49.7% (8,565)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
48.3% (8,632)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Backlund
Paul
P1
48.5%
53.9%
P2
50.3%
51.0%
P3
48.4%
52.0%
OT
44.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 14:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:11 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 09:02 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 00:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:20 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:07 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:24 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 04:05 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |