Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +4.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Paul 53.9% (-4.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 52.2%
Defensive zone
Backlund 82.5%
Neutral zone
Backlund 65.7%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Backlund
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
6
(8 meetings)
2
6
Backlund
Paul
Last 8: Backlund 2-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Backlund
Paul
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
2
Backlund
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
53.1% (710)
-2.1%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
57.3% (199)
+2.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
58.0% (69)
-15.7%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +15.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Backlund is 48.4% vs left-shot opponents (1,012).
Backlund shoots left. Paul is 58.1% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Backlund
Paul
Home
51.2% (782)
56.0% (466)
Away
49.4% (765)
52.7% (512)
By Period
Backlund
Paul
P1
51.5%
57.2%
P2
49.8%
54.9%
P3
49.9%
51.5%
OT
37.5%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 11:33 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 10:24 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 04:05 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 3 | 08:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 2 | 04:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 16:45 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 16:33 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 16, 2023 | 1 | 05:01 | Defensive | Nick Paul |