Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.5% vs 50.4%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.5% vs Paul 50.4% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 69.4%
Defensive zone
Paul 50.8%
Neutral zone
Backlund 51.4%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Backlund
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Backlund
Paul
Last 6: Backlund 2-4 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Paul
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Backlund
Paul
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
51.5% (983)
53.0% (644)
-1.5%
Power Play
49.4% (87)
37.5% (24)
+11.9%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (159)
42.9% (177)
+2.4%
On power play, Backlund has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Backlund is 51.2% vs left-shot opponents (742).
Backlund shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Home / Away
Backlund
Paul
Home
51.6% (653)
52.5% (516)
Away
49.3% (576)
47.1% (329)
By Period
Backlund
Paul
P1
50.0%
47.6%
P2
49.8%
48.4%
P3
51.7%
54.5%
OT
53.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
50.7%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2022 | 3 | 03:54 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 07:15 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 18:23 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 07:49 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 03:09 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 05:29 | Defensive | Nick Paul |