Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 48.5% vs Paul 50.0% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 57.9%
Defensive zone
Backlund 72.7%
Neutral zone
Backlund 57.3%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Backlund
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
6
(10 meetings)
4
6
Backlund
Paul
Last 10: Backlund 4-6 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
1
4
Backlund
Paul
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
0
Backlund
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Backlund
Paul
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (1,032)
48.8% (666)
+1.6%
Power Play
52.3% (107)
53.8% (65)
-1.5%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (313)
60.0% (55)
-19.4%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Backlund shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Home / Away
Backlund
Paul
Home
48.7% (749)
49.7% (348)
Away
48.1% (703)
50.2% (438)
By Period
Backlund
Paul
P1
50.4%
51.0%
P2
50.1%
47.4%
P3
45.8%
51.5%
OT
30.8%
0.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
53.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 07:04 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 07:01 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 03:51 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:20 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 2 | 01:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 18:22 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 06:07 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 1 | 19:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |