Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Roy 51.9% (-2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 53.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 63.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 52.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 55.2%
55.2%
44.8%
Backlund
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Backlund
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Backlund
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
51.9% (547)
-1.8%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
54.1% (37)
-1.0%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
53.3% (92)
-5.5%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +5.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Backlund shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Backlund
Roy
Home
48.1% (580)
54.0% (328)
Away
51.1% (653)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Backlund
Roy
P1
45.1%
53.5%
P2
54.7%
51.6%
P3
49.0%
51.6%
Final 5 min
47.2%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 01:33 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |