Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 48.4%). Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (77% H2H, 13 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Roy 48.4% (+0.6%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 36-21 in 57 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 67.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 62.1%
Neutral zone
Backlund 65.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 64.8%
64.8%
35.2%
Backlund
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
36
-
21
(57 meetings)
36
21
Backlund
Roy
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
12
9
Backlund
Roy
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
14
9
Backlund
Roy
23 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
10
3
Backlund
Roy
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,410)
48.7% (3,719)
+1.0%
Power Play
51.6% (1,336)
49.5% (283)
+2.1%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (2,446)
45.5% (477)
-1.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Backlund is 49.5% vs right-shot opponents (6,244).
Backlund shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Backlund
Roy
Home
49.7% (8,565)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
48.3% (8,632)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Backlund
Roy
P1
48.5%
50.8%
P2
50.3%
46.3%
P3
48.4%
48.1%
OT
44.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.3%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2, 2026 | 3 | 01:33 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 2, 2026 | 1 | 08:00 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 3 | 02:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 5, 2025 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 13:59 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 07:55 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 2 | 07:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 10:44 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 28, 2024 | 1 | 02:40 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 14, 2024 | 2 | 12:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:30 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 17:12 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 3 | 15:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 06:20 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 04:33 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 2 | 00:59 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 16:09 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 13, 2024 | 1 | 03:44 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |