Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Zacha 51.7% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 6-4 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 70.6%
Defensive zone
Backlund 66.6%
Neutral zone
Zacha 50.1%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 51.3%
48.7%
51.3%
Backlund
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
4
(10 meetings)
6
4
Backlund
Zacha
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
1
2
Backlund
Zacha
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Zacha
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
1
Backlund
Zacha
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
53.3% (646)
-3.2%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
53.0% (100)
+0.1%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
38.9% (72)
+8.9%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +8.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Zacha is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (476).
Home / Away
Backlund
Zacha
Home
48.1% (580)
51.7% (410)
Away
51.1% (653)
52.2% (408)
By Period
Backlund
Zacha
P1
45.1%
57.7%
P2
54.7%
48.9%
P3
49.0%
50.2%
OT
46.2%
35.7%
Final 5 min
47.2%
48.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:08 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |