Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (49.0% vs 49.1%). Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 21 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Zacha 49.1% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 22-19 in 41 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 65.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 63.7%
Neutral zone
Zacha 51.3%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 54.9%
45.1%
54.9%
Backlund
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
22
(41 meetings)
19
22
Backlund
Zacha
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
6
15
Backlund
Zacha
21 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
7
3
Backlund
Zacha
10 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
6
4
Backlund
Zacha
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,410)
48.9% (5,102)
+0.8%
Power Play
51.6% (1,336)
55.6% (804)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (2,446)
42.2% (555)
+1.8%
On power play, Zacha has a +4.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Backlund shoots left. Zacha is 47.8% vs left-shot opponents (3,921).
Home / Away
Backlund
Zacha
Home
49.7% (8,565)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
48.3% (8,632)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Backlund
Zacha
P1
48.5%
49.9%
P2
50.3%
49.2%
P3
48.4%
48.1%
OT
44.1%
53.1%
Final 5 min
48.3%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:14 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 03:08 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 09:58 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:31 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 06:26 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 3 | 08:27 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:06 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 13:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 09:20 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 17:50 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:04 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 7, 2024 | 2 | 00:32 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 19:01 | Defensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 17:22 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 07:18 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 3 | 00:19 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 22, 2024 | 2 | 17:46 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |