Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Hartman 47.3% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 52.7%
Defensive zone
Backlund 84.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 68.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 71.5%
71.5%
28.5%
Backlund
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
3
(11 meetings)
8
3
Backlund
Hartman
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Hartman
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
1
Backlund
Hartman
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
47.1% (649)
+3.9%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
47.1% (68)
+12.2%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
45.2% (73)
-2.9%
On power play, Backlund has a +12.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Hartman is 47.9% vs left-shot opponents (608).
Home / Away
Backlund
Hartman
Home
51.2% (782)
46.5% (361)
Away
49.4% (765)
47.3% (429)
By Period
Backlund
Hartman
P1
51.5%
45.1%
P2
49.8%
44.4%
P3
49.9%
50.9%
OT
37.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
52.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 19:03 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 10:13 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 07:23 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 05:50 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 2, 2024 | 3 | 05:19 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 12:58 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 3 | 04:13 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 07:11 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 14, 2023 | 1 | 06:58 | Defensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 19:33 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Dec 5, 2023 | 1 | 11:22 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |