Mikael Backlund vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +4.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (69% H2H, 48 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.0% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% (+4.3%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 88-69 in 157 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 63.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 86.9%
Neutral zone
Backlund 76.6%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 75.5%
75.5%
24.5%
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
88
-
69
(157 meetings)
88
69
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Backlund 6-4 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
23
28
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
51 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
33
15
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
48 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
32
26
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
58 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
49.7% (13,410)
44.9% (8,756)
+4.8%
Power Play
51.6% (1,336)
50.7% (839)
+0.9%
Penalty Kill
44.0% (2,446)
37.9% (879)
+6.1%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +6.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Backlund is 48.8% vs left-shot opponents (10,953).
Backlund shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,841).
Home / Away
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
49.7% (8,565)
46.5% (5,350)
Away
48.3% (8,632)
42.9% (5,136)
By Period
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
48.5%
45.1%
P2
50.3%
43.9%
P3
48.4%
45.3%
OT
44.1%
43.5%
Final 5 min
48.3%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.0%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:56 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:01 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 04:09 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 16:45 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 3 | 06:23 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 19:46 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 13:19 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 10:57 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 2 | 08:03 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 24, 2024 | 1 | 15:53 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 12:38 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 2 | 09:59 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |