Mikael Backlund vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 72.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 86.6%
Neutral zone
Backlund 56.0%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 56.6%
56.6%
43.4%
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
0
(4 meetings)
4
0
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
0
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
47.6% (231)
+2.5%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
83.3% (12)
-30.2%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
33.3% (21)
+14.5%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +30.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Backlund is 49.9% vs left-shot opponents (871).
Backlund shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
48.1% (580)
51.2% (164)
Away
51.1% (653)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
45.1%
50.0%
P2
54.7%
46.2%
P3
49.0%
49.5%
OT
46.2%
0.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 12:47 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 06:56 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 3 | 03:50 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 8, 2025 | 2 | 04:56 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |