Mikael Backlund vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (48.4% vs 48.5%). Look for Backlund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 48.5% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.7% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 57.5%
Defensive zone
Backlund 70.2%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 50.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 52.0%
52.0%
48.0%
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 5: Backlund 2-3 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
2
1
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (1,032)
50.3% (479)
+0.1%
Power Play
52.3% (107)
50.0% (28)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (313)
30.0% (50)
+10.6%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +10.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Backlund is 47.7% vs left-shot opponents (1,014).
Backlund shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 47.4% vs left-shot opponents (384).
Home / Away
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
48.7% (749)
48.9% (270)
Away
48.1% (703)
48.1% (287)
By Period
Backlund
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
50.4%
48.7%
P2
50.1%
50.0%
P3
45.8%
47.3%
OT
30.8%
36.4%
Final 5 min
50.5%
43.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | 3 | 18:16 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:08 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 2 | 15:01 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 29, 2025 | 1 | 09:49 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 3, 2024 | 1 | 10:58 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |