Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +2.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backlund wins 43.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 47.6% vs Lafferty 49.7% (-2.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 59.8%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 67.7%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 51.4%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 52.4%
47.6%
52.4%
Backlund
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Backlund
Lafferty
Last 5: Backlund 3-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Lafferty
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
1
0
Backlund
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
2
Backlund
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
47.3% (630)
51.5% (204)
-4.2%
Power Play
48.5% (66)
41.7% (12)
+6.8%
Penalty Kill
46.3% (82)
35.0% (20)
+11.3%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +11.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Backlund is 43.8% vs right-shot opponents (276).
Backlund shoots left. Lafferty is 48.3% vs left-shot opponents (178).
Home / Away
Backlund
Lafferty
Home
50.4% (347)
49.2% (124)
Away
44.8% (431)
50.0% (112)
By Period
Backlund
Lafferty
P1
46.7%
48.9%
P2
44.9%
48.1%
P3
49.8%
51.6%
OT
58.3%
100.0%
Final 5 min
46.7%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
47.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 15:21 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 19:08 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 2 | 07:14 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 18:52 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 1 | 03:54 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |