Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Lafferty 43.9% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Lafferty 76.0%
Defensive zone
Backlund 50.1%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 62.7%
Result
Sam Lafferty favored at 65.1%
34.9%
65.1%
Backlund
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
4
(6 meetings)
2
4
Backlund
Lafferty
Last 6: Backlund 2-4 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
2
Backlund
Lafferty
3 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Backlund
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Backlund
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
42.6% (324)
+8.4%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
31.3% (16)
+28.0%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
43.8% (16)
-1.5%
On power play, Backlund has a +28.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Lafferty is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Backlund
Lafferty
Home
51.2% (782)
40.9% (181)
Away
49.4% (765)
43.4% (175)
By Period
Backlund
Lafferty
P1
51.5%
42.2%
P2
49.8%
36.4%
P3
49.9%
48.6%
Final 5 min
50.5%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 16, 2024 | 2 | 05:10 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Apr 16, 2024 | 1 | 14:00 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 03:00 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 11:57 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 01:32 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 19:39 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |