Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (50.9% vs 51.1%). Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.8% vs Lafferty 50.9% (-0.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Backlund 65.9%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 66.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 54.8%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 65.9%
65.9%
34.1%
Backlund
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Backlund
Lafferty
Last 5: Backlund 4-1 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
4
1
Backlund
Lafferty
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (1,083)
52.2% (366)
-0.3%
Power Play
51.7% (120)
60.0% (15)
-8.3%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (183)
46.2% (104)
-1.9%
On power play, Lafferty has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Backlund is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Backlund shoots left. Lafferty is 50.4% vs left-shot opponents (363).
Home / Away
Backlund
Lafferty
Home
51.9% (673)
53.1% (258)
Away
49.9% (713)
48.9% (227)
By Period
Backlund
Lafferty
P1
51.4%
52.5%
P2
50.5%
49.7%
P3
51.4%
51.3%
OT
35.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
50.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2023 | 3 | 00:59 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 2 | 05:41 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 26, 2023 | 1 | 12:36 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 2 | 10:19 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 2 | 10:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |