Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.8% vs Thompson 43.8% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Thompson 51.9%
Defensive zone
Thompson 56.0%
Neutral zone
Thompson 54.8%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 53.5%
46.5%
53.5%
Backlund
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
5
(9 meetings)
4
5
Backlund
Thompson
Last 9: Backlund 4-5 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
3
Backlund
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
2
Backlund
Thompson
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (1,083)
43.3% (735)
+8.6%
Power Play
51.7% (120)
50.0% (26)
+1.7%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (183)
36.5% (52)
+7.8%
On even strength, Backlund has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Backlund is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (562).
Backlund shoots left. Thompson is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (573).
Home / Away
Backlund
Thompson
Home
51.9% (673)
44.5% (407)
Away
49.9% (713)
41.6% (406)
By Period
Backlund
Thompson
P1
51.4%
44.4%
P2
50.5%
44.8%
P3
51.4%
40.2%
OT
35.0%
42.9%
Final 5 min
50.2%
38.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.9%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 11, 2023 | 3 | 03:19 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Feb 11, 2023 | 2 | 02:17 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 13:24 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 04:54 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 05:05 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 02:59 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:16 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |