Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 49.7% vs Thompson 45.3% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 8-6 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 58.1%
Defensive zone
Backlund 89.3%
Neutral zone
Backlund 64.9%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Backlund
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
6
(14 meetings)
8
6
Backlund
Thompson
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
2
3
Backlund
Thompson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
0
Backlund
Thompson
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Backlund
Thompson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
50.1% (891)
44.9% (642)
+5.2%
Power Play
53.1% (64)
47.9% (94)
+5.2%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (278)
33.3% (33)
+14.5%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +14.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Backlund is 49.2% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Backlund shoots left. Thompson is 42.1% vs left-shot opponents (549).
Home / Away
Backlund
Thompson
Home
48.1% (580)
46.0% (391)
Away
51.1% (653)
43.4% (378)
By Period
Backlund
Thompson
P1
45.1%
48.1%
P2
54.7%
44.9%
P3
49.0%
41.2%
OT
46.2%
42.9%
Final 5 min
47.2%
42.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 17:50 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 3 | 01:32 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 19:00 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 14:53 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:28 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 09:05 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:05 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Dec 8, 2025 | 1 | 19:46 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 3 | 07:16 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 17:48 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 2 | 04:39 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 19, 2025 | 1 | 01:11 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |