Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Backlund on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Backlund wins 53.8% vs right-shot opponents — Thompson shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 50.3% vs Thompson 44.0% (+7.0%)
H2H factor
Backlund leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Backlund 62.8%
Defensive zone
Backlund 87.4%
Neutral zone
Backlund 79.1%
Result
Mikael Backlund favored at 77.5%
77.5%
22.5%
Backlund
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
6
(15 meetings)
9
6
Backlund
Thompson
Last 10: Backlund 7-3 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
1
Backlund
Thompson
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Backlund
3
2
Backlund
Thompson
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
3
3
Backlund
Thompson
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
51.0% (1,205)
44.6% (709)
+6.4%
Power Play
59.3% (108)
41.5% (53)
+17.8%
Penalty Kill
42.3% (234)
35.1% (97)
+7.2%
On power play, Backlund has a +17.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Backlund is 53.8% vs right-shot opponents (535).
Backlund shoots left. Thompson is 39.9% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Backlund
Thompson
Home
51.2% (782)
45.5% (426)
Away
49.4% (765)
41.1% (433)
By Period
Backlund
Thompson
P1
51.5%
48.5%
P2
49.8%
43.8%
P3
49.9%
38.1%
OT
37.5%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
37.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
50.3%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
43.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:59 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 10:46 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 06:08 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 17:42 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 14:40 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 12:11 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 12:01 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 17:56 | Neutral | Mikael Backlund |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 10:58 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 08:01 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 03:14 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 15:52 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |