Scouting Report
Mikael Backlund holds a +5.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Thompson on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Backlund 48.5% vs Thompson 43.7% (+5.6%)
H2H factor
Thompson leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Thompson 87.4%
Defensive zone
Backlund 53.9%
Neutral zone
Thompson 70.3%
Result
Tage Thompson favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Backlund
Thompson
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
7
(10 meetings)
3
7
Backlund
Thompson
Last 10: Backlund 3-7 Thompson
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Thompson
1
4
Backlund
Thompson
5 total
Defensive Zone
Even
2
2
Backlund
Thompson
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Thompson
0
1
Backlund
Thompson
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Backlund
Thompson
Edge
Even Strength
50.4% (1,032)
41.9% (597)
+8.5%
Power Play
52.3% (107)
50.5% (95)
+1.8%
Penalty Kill
40.6% (313)
25.0% (12)
+15.6%
On penalty kill, Backlund has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Thompson shoots right. Backlund is 50.0% vs right-shot opponents (438).
Backlund shoots left. Thompson is 42.0% vs left-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Backlund
Thompson
Home
48.7% (749)
47.1% (367)
Away
48.1% (703)
38.0% (337)
By Period
Backlund
Thompson
P1
50.4%
44.2%
P2
50.1%
41.6%
P3
45.8%
42.9%
OT
30.8%
25.0%
Final 5 min
50.5%
48.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Backlund
52.0%▲
48.0%
48.4%
Thompson
36.0%▼
39.5%
42.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 12:16 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 11:19 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:09 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 10:02 | Defensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 17:55 | Defensive | Mikael Backlund |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 2 | 04:35 | Neutral | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 15:58 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Jan 23, 2025 | 1 | 04:43 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 2 | 13:34 | Offensive | Tage Thompson |
| Nov 9, 2024 | 1 | 10:36 | Offensive | Mikael Backlund |