Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Granlund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 49.6% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 86.7%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 76.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 69.8%
30.2%
69.8%
Granlund
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Granlund
O'Reilly
Last 6: Granlund 4-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Granlund
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Granlund
2
0
Granlund
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Granlund
2
1
Granlund
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
49.5% (588)
56.2% (983)
-6.7%
Power Play
60.5% (43)
55.5% (254)
+5.0%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (93)
52.0% (102)
-6.8%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +6.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Granlund is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (482).
Granlund shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Granlund
O'Reilly
Home
54.8% (305)
56.2% (697)
Away
45.8% (419)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Granlund
O'Reilly
P1
43.8%
54.5%
P2
51.2%
55.5%
P3
53.9%
57.1%
OT
40.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
49.7%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
49.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2025 | 3 | 09:17 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:28 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 13:25 | Defensive | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 02:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 19:31 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 1 | 01:07 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |