Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Granlund 48.4% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Granlund 54.0%
Defensive zone
Granlund 57.9%
Neutral zone
Granlund 55.3%
Result
Mikael Granlund favored at 55.3%
55.3%
44.7%
Granlund
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Granlund
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
1
2
Granlund
O'Reilly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Granlund
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (446)
55.4% (826)
-6.7%
Power Play
56.6% (99)
57.9% (221)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
31.1% (61)
50.4% (129)
-19.3%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +19.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Granlund is 47.2% vs left-shot opponents (394).
Granlund shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Granlund
O'Reilly
Home
53.3% (255)
55.8% (579)
Away
44.4% (351)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Granlund
O'Reilly
P1
51.3%
57.7%
P2
48.8%
54.8%
P3
44.4%
54.3%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
52.0%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Granlund
52.0%▲
48.5%
48.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 14:26 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mikael Granlund |