Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +3.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings). Rantanen wins 53.4% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Rantanen 53.2% vs Hertl 56.8% (-3.7%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 7-4 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Rantanen 92.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 82.4%
Neutral zone
Rantanen 63.8%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Rantanen
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
7
(11 meetings)
4
7
Rantanen
Hertl
Last 10: Rantanen 4-6 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Rantanen
4
0
Rantanen
Hertl
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
7
Rantanen
Hertl
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Rantanen
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (346)
57.0% (718)
-5.3%
Power Play
58.5% (164)
64.9% (188)
-6.4%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
44.2% (77)
-44.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +44.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Rantanen is 53.4% vs left-shot opponents (290).
Rantanen shoots left. Hertl is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (631).
Home / Away
Rantanen
Hertl
Home
55.8% (258)
59.2% (463)
Away
51.8% (253)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Rantanen
Hertl
P1
50.0%
56.3%
P2
56.6%
55.4%
P3
54.3%
60.5%
OT
71.4%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.4%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Rantanen
50.0%▼
52.5%
53.8%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2024 | 3 | 16:53 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 3 | 04:21 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 08:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 08:34 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 18:40 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 18:26 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 15:20 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 15:16 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 11:24 | Offensive | Mikko Rantanen |
| Dec 17, 2023 | 1 | 11:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Oct 14, 2023 | 3 | 15:43 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |