Mitch Marner vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Marner wins 45.7% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (-5.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 50.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 52.4%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.1%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.5%
48.5%
51.5%
Marner
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Marner
MacKinnon
Last 6: Marner 3-3 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Marner
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Marner
3
1
Marner
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
42.2% (462)
46.1% (11,218)
-3.9%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
53.3% (1,412)
+2.3%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
42.8% (502)
-7.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +7.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Marner is 45.7% vs right-shot opponents (173).
Marner shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Marner
MacKinnon
Home
38.2% (293)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
46.0% (252)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Marner
MacKinnon
P1
39.1%
47.4%
P2
41.1%
46.6%
P3
47.1%
46.1%
OT
40.0%
48.4%
Final 5 min
47.5%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 00:15 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 12:05 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 02:43 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 4, 2019 | 1 | 09:31 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |