Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.6% FO% edge overall. Marner wins 40.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-14.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Marner 57.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 51.6%
Neutral zone
Marner 50.4%
Result
Mitch Marner favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Marner
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Marner
O'Reilly
Last 5: Marner 2-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Marner
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Marner
O'Reilly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Marner
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
41.5% (282)
55.4% (826)
-13.9%
Power Play
40.0% (5)
57.9% (221)
-17.9%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
50.4% (129)
-25.4%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +25.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marner is 40.9% vs left-shot opponents (220).
Marner shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.1% vs right-shot opponents (514).
Home / Away
Marner
O'Reilly
Home
36.1% (158)
55.8% (579)
Away
46.1% (141)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Marner
O'Reilly
P1
41.6%
57.7%
P2
40.2%
54.8%
P3
40.5%
54.3%
Final 5 min
41.2%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
40.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |