Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +14.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Marner on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Marner wins 40.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Marner 43.1% vs O'Reilly 56.0% (-14.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 61.5%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 78.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 77.2%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 72.9%
27.1%
72.9%
Marner
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Marner
O'Reilly
Last 9: Marner 5-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Marner
2
1
Marner
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Marner
3
2
Marner
O'Reilly
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Marner
O'Reilly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Marner
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
42.2% (462)
56.2% (15,260)
-14.0%
Power Play
55.6% (18)
58.8% (3,445)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
35.4% (65)
51.4% (2,811)
-16.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Marner is 40.1% vs left-shot opponents (372).
Marner shoots right. O'Reilly is 55.7% vs right-shot opponents (7,689).
Home / Away
Marner
O'Reilly
Home
38.2% (293)
57.6% (10,762)
Away
46.0% (252)
54.4% (10,787)
By Period
Marner
O'Reilly
P1
39.1%
55.6%
P2
41.1%
57.0%
P3
47.1%
55.1%
OT
40.0%
62.2%
Final 5 min
47.5%
55.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Marner
48.0%▲
40.0%
41.8%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 15:45 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 13:16 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 3 | 06:31 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 3 | 03:30 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 31, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 26, 2018 | 1 | 06:44 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 15, 2018 | 1 | 13:33 | Defensive | Mitch Marner |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 3 | 10:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 5, 2018 | 3 | 00:35 | Offensive | Mitch Marner |