Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Staal 54.7% vs Frost 55.7% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Frost leads 8-3 in 11 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 56.8%
Defensive zone
Staal 85.2%
Neutral zone
Staal 62.8%
Result
Jordan Staal favored at 64.1%
64.1%
35.9%
Staal
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
8
(11 meetings)
3
8
Staal
Frost
Last 10: Staal 3-7 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
5
Staal
Frost
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
2
3
Staal
Frost
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Staal
1
0
Staal
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Staal
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
56.2% (939)
55.0% (686)
+1.2%
Power Play
66.9% (139)
60.8% (166)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
43.5% (239)
100.0% (5)
-56.5%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +56.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Staal is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (922).
Staal shoots left. Frost is 57.1% vs left-shot opponents (571).
Home / Away
Staal
Frost
Home
55.4% (663)
56.1% (428)
Away
54.7% (654)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Staal
Frost
P1
54.9%
58.9%
P2
55.1%
55.4%
P3
54.0%
54.1%
OT
70.0%
70.0%
Final 5 min
57.3%
51.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Staal
50.0%▼
52.5%
55.0%
Frost
66.0%▲
60.0%
56.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 16:16 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 14:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 3 | 08:08 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 09:34 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 09:25 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 07:00 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 04:30 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 2 | 03:32 | Neutral | Jordan Staal |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 04:57 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2026 | 1 | 04:44 | Defensive | Jordan Staal |
| Nov 30, 2025 | 2 | 16:52 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |