Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +9.8% FO% edge overall. Frost wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Foligno 52.3% (-9.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 51.5%
Defensive zone
Foligno 62.9%
Neutral zone
Frost 67.9%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 52.5%
52.5%
47.5%
Frost
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
2
(4 meetings)
2
2
Frost
Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Foligno
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
52.0% (50)
-6.4%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
66.7% (21)
-20.7%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
0.0% (1)
+55.6%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +55.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Frost shoots left. Foligno is 55.0% vs left-shot opponents (40).
Home / Away
Frost
Foligno
Home
47.0% (440)
51.2% (41)
Away
44.8% (511)
61.3% (31)
By Period
Frost
Foligno
P1
42.5%
55.6%
P2
47.9%
48.0%
P3
46.6%
65.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
81.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 13:45 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 10:58 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 09:32 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |