Scouting Report
Nick Foligno holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Foligno on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Frost wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 49.5% vs Foligno 52.0% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 58.1%
Defensive zone
Frost 59.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 55.7%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 58.3%
58.3%
41.7%
Frost
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
6
(7 meetings)
1
6
Frost
Foligno
Last 7: Frost 1-6 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
4
Frost
Foligno
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Foligno
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Frost
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (704)
53.4% (249)
-4.8%
Power Play
55.7% (115)
53.2% (154)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (4)
40.6% (32)
-15.6%
On penalty kill, Foligno has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Frost is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (492).
Frost shoots left. Foligno is 56.4% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Home / Away
Frost
Foligno
Home
49.9% (399)
57.3% (225)
Away
49.1% (424)
47.1% (210)
By Period
Frost
Foligno
P1
51.2%
53.0%
P2
53.9%
51.8%
P3
42.7%
52.6%
Final 5 min
50.0%
53.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
52.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 17:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 10:25 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:06 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 05:31 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |