Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +6.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Frost wins 57.0% vs left-shot opponents — Foligno shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 55.7% vs Foligno 49.8% (+6.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 94.6%
Defensive zone
Frost 55.2%
Neutral zone
Frost 79.4%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 86.7%
86.7%
13.3%
Frost
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Frost
Foligno
Last 5: Frost 4-1 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
4
0
Frost
Foligno
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
0
1
Frost
Foligno
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
54.9% (701)
49.0% (261)
+5.9%
Power Play
60.8% (166)
57.1% (42)
+3.7%
Penalty Kill
100.0% (5)
47.1% (51)
+52.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +52.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Frost is 57.0% vs left-shot opponents (586).
Frost shoots left. Foligno is 54.2% vs left-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Frost
Foligno
Home
56.0% (443)
48.9% (178)
Away
56.6% (429)
50.6% (176)
By Period
Frost
Foligno
P1
58.9%
40.4%
P2
55.3%
55.8%
P3
54.0%
51.2%
OT
70.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
51.4%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
49.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |