Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (60% H2H, 10 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 50.3% vs Foligno 48.6% (+1.7%)
H2H factor
Foligno leads 10-10 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 59.3%
Defensive zone
Foligno 58.1%
Neutral zone
Frost 51.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 52.6%
52.6%
47.4%
Frost
Foligno
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
10
(20 meetings)
10
10
Frost
Foligno
Last 10: Frost 7-3 Foligno
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
6
4
Frost
Foligno
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Foligno
2
4
Frost
Foligno
6 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Frost
Foligno
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Foligno
Edge
Even Strength
49.4% (3,598)
48.3% (2,810)
+1.1%
Power Play
55.5% (625)
52.3% (730)
+3.2%
Penalty Kill
52.8% (36)
44.0% (455)
+8.8%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +8.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Foligno shoots left. Frost is 50.6% vs left-shot opponents (2,782).
Frost shoots left. Foligno is 49.8% vs left-shot opponents (2,496).
Home / Away
Frost
Foligno
Home
51.0% (2,047)
49.9% (2,013)
Away
49.7% (2,212)
47.2% (1,984)
By Period
Frost
Foligno
P1
50.8%
47.6%
P2
51.1%
50.4%
P3
48.5%
48.3%
OT
66.7%
29.7%
Final 5 min
48.7%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
50.3%
Foligno
54.0%▲
48.0%
48.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2 | 01:23 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 3 | 02:39 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 2 | 12:02 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 7, 2025 | 1 | 17:46 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 03:40 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 2 | 04:55 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 1 | 13:05 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 08:27 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 17:00 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 10:25 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 08:06 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Feb 21, 2024 | 1 | 05:31 | Offensive | Nick Foligno |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 3 | 13:45 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 2 | 10:58 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Jan 16, 2023 | 1 | 09:32 | Neutral | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 17, 2022 | 3 | 05:54 | Defensive | Nick Foligno |
| Nov 27, 2019 | 1 | 11:50 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |