Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Frost wins 46.2% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Frost 46.2% vs Paul 53.4% (-7.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Frost 75.5%
Defensive zone
Frost 76.8%
Neutral zone
Frost 69.2%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 72.0%
72.0%
28.0%
Frost
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
8
(10 meetings)
2
8
Frost
Paul
Last 10: Frost 2-8 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
2
Frost
Paul
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Frost
Paul
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
5
Frost
Paul
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Frost
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
45.6% (833)
53.8% (753)
-8.2%
Power Play
46.0% (100)
58.9% (90)
-12.9%
Penalty Kill
55.6% (18)
47.4% (78)
+8.2%
On power play, Paul has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Frost is 46.2% vs left-shot opponents (625).
Frost shoots left. Paul is 56.3% vs left-shot opponents (579).
Home / Away
Frost
Paul
Home
47.0% (440)
54.2% (450)
Away
44.8% (511)
53.3% (471)
By Period
Frost
Paul
P1
42.5%
58.2%
P2
47.9%
50.6%
P3
46.6%
52.9%
OT
66.7%
50.0%
Final 5 min
48.5%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
45.8%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 05:29 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:15 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 3 | 02:05 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:22 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 18:17 | Neutral | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2023 | 2 | 10:49 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 1, 2022 | 3 | 09:19 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 07:30 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 2 | 04:12 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Oct 18, 2022 | 1 | 14:05 | Defensive | Nick Paul |